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University of Victoria Wellington researchers are reconstructing rainfall patterns in the South Pacific by analysing isotope ratios in stalagmites.
One of the biggest concerns about global climate change is that change may not be incremental. Instead, the climate system may experience ‘tipping points’ – sudden and enduring shifts in response to gradual forcing.
One system that potentially experiences such ‘tipping’ behaviour is the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) – a belt of atmospheric convection and rainfall in the southern tropical Pacific that extends diagonally from Papua New Guinea down beyond the Cook Islands. This system brings essential rain to millions of people living in the Pacific Islands, and impacts cyclogenesis and water vapor supply to the entire Southern Hemisphere.
At Victoria University of Wellington, researchers Dr Susan Al-Hafid and Dr Dan Sinclair have reconstructed rainfall patterns in the South Pacific. They are analysing isotope ratios in stalagmites covering a period of 25,000 to 45,000 years ago and comparing their results against paleoclimate numerical simulations. Each simulation applied climate perturbations, which involved discharging various amounts of fresh water in the Northern Atlantic.
Pictured above is a graph showing regions of high precipitation. Figure provided by Dr Susan Al-Hafid and Dr Dan Sinclair.
Alexander Pletzer and Chris Scott, Research Software Engineers with NeSI at the time, assisted the researchers with post-processing climate simulation data to compare the different precipitation patterns resulting from applying various fresh weather discharge (hosing) scenarios.
The regions of high precipitation often form a linear band in longitude-latitude coordinates, and sometimes exhibit a breaking point, i.e. an abrupt change in the longitude-latitude slope. Classical regression line fitting techniques must be adapted for such cases.
Alexander and Chris developed a Python package (https://github.com:pletzer/paleoscripts), which contains functions that automate many common postprocessing tasks.
The introduction of FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) software development practices that emphasises reproducibility and facilitates code maintenance.
The consultancy support greatly enhanced our ability to set up, process, and analyze the CSIRO MK3L model efficiently. Alex's assistance with building the Python environment, designing notebooks, and performing calculations has significantly improved the reproducibility and overall quality of our research workflows. We are extremely grateful to Alex and all NeSI support staff for expertise, dedication, and hard work on our project.
Dr Susan Al-Hafid, School of Geography Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington
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